市場資訊

GTJA：Maintained “BUY” rating on Sinic Holdings (2103.HK), with target price HK4.8

Solid Fundamentals With Disciplined Landbanking, "Buy"

GTJA updated its research report on Sinic Holdings on 3 September, Maintained “BUY” rating on Sinic Holdings(2103.HK), with target price HK4.8. Please see the following summary for details:

● 1H2021 results were largely in line with expectations. Sinic recorded strong revenue growth at 28.9% YoY in 1H2021. Despite a notable decline in GPM (down by 8.5 ppts YoY, at 21.7%), Sinic’s 1H2021 underlying shareholder’s profit still delivered solid growth of 7.4% YoY to RMB730 mn, largely underpinned by significant tax decline (-27.4% YoY). GTJA expect Sinic to deliver solid earnings growth in the next few years, based on its ample attri. unbooked sales of RMB60 bn and stable GPM outlook at 22% level.

● Balance sheet further strengthened. Thanks to its disciplined land acquisitions in 1H2021 (attri. land costs RMB2.2 bn, 8% of attri. sales in 1H2021), GTJA saw significant improvement in the Company’s net gearing ratio, which declined by 13.1 ppts to 50.5% by mid-2021 from that of 63.6% by end-2020. Also, Sinic’s cash balance also increased by 10.3% to RMB19.3 bn, with total debt having slightly declined by 0.3% to RMB29.6 bn. Guided by the management, Sinic is going to be in the green camp under the "three red lines" within one year.

● Prudent land acquisitions to protect margin; land-bank life to stay within 2.5-3.0 years. With a prudent attitude, in 1H2021, Sinic only acquired 5 land parcels, with average land cost at RMB4,245/sq.m. Currently, Sinic’s attri. land bank (saleable resources of RMB210 bn) is sufficient for sales in 2.5 years. The company targets to maintain a 2.5-3.0 years land bank life, but with focus on protecting its margin.

● "Buy" with TP at HK$4.80. GTJA are encouraged to see that Sinic maintained solid fundamentals amid the current stringent policy environment. GTJA maintain "Buy" with TP still at HK$4.80. Their target price implies 7.1x 2021F underlying PER and 1.2x 2021F PBR. Key risks include: 1) sales slowdown; 2) difficulties in acquiring lands at comfortable margin; and 3) refinancing hurdles.

新力控股(2103.HK)獲國泰君安維持“買入”評級，目標價HK$4.8

基本面穩健以及土地獲取審慎，“買入”

9月3日，國泰君安更新了對新力控股的研究報吿，新力控股(2103.HK)獲國泰君安維持“買入”評級，目標價HK$4.8。有關詳細信息，請參閲以下摘要：

● 2021年上半年業績大致符合預期。在今年上半年，新力控股集團錄得強勁收入增長，同比增28.9%。儘管毛利率大幅下跌(同比下跌8.5個百分點，至21.7%)，但是受税費顯著改善(同比跌27.4%)支撐，新力2021年中期核心股東淨利潤仍然錄得穩健的同比7.4%的增長至人民幣7.3億元。基於其充足的權益已售未結人民幣600億元，以及穩定的22%毛利率前景，國泰君安預計新力將在未來幾年錄得穩健的利潤增長。

● 資產負債表進一步加強。得益於今年上半年謹慎的土地獲取(權益土地成本人民幣22億元，占上半年權益銷售8%)，國泰君安看到公司淨負債率顯著改善，從2020年底的63.6%下跌13.1個百分點至今年中期的50.5%。另外，新力現金水平也增加10.3%至人民幣193億元，總負債略降0.3%至人民幣296億元。管理層指引，新力將有望在一年內進入“三條紅線”的綠檔。

● 謹慎購地以保利潤率，土地週期保持2.5-3.0年時間。基於謹慎的態度，新力2021年上半年僅獲取5塊土地，平均土地價格為人民幣4,245元每平方米。目前，新力的權益土地儲備(貨值人民幣2,100億元)足夠未來2.5年銷售。公司目標保持2.5-3.0年的土地銷售週期，但重點會放在保護利潤率上。

● “買入”評級，目標價4.80港元。國泰君安欣然看到新力在當前嚴苛政策環境下，保持基本面穩健。國泰君安維持“買入”評級，目標價仍為4.80港元，對應2021年核心市盈率7.1倍，2021年市淨率1.2倍。

BofA：OW SINHLD 9.5 '21/ 8.5 '22/ 10.5 '22 on favorable risk-reward driven

BofA updated its research report on Sinic Holdings on 31 August. Please see the following summary for details:

Improved debt/ cap, net gearing & net leverage

Compared to end-FY20, SINHLD’s total cash increased 10% to RMB19.3bn while total debt remained largely unchanged at RMB29.6bn. Net debt dropped 16% HoH to RMB10.2bn while total equity grew 6% HoH to RMB20.2bn. Debt/ cap improved 2ppt HoH to 59% and net debt/ equity improved 13ppt HoH to 51%. Debt/ LTM EBITDA increased 0.4x HoH to 5.9x whereas net debt/ LTM EBITDA improved 0.2x HoH to 2.0x. Total cash/ short-term debt improved 0.2x HoH to 1.4x.

Refinancing need in onshore and offshore bond markets

Since end-1H21, SINHLD’s net onshore bond issuance (excluding ABS) has amounted to RMB0.5bn while its net offshore bond redemption has totaled US$5mn. As for its refinancing need in the rest of 2021, it has no bonds due/ puttable in the onshore market (excluding ABS) while it has US$246mn bonds to mature in the offshore market. BofA estimate its pro-forma 1H21 total cash to cover 4.3x and 3.6x its bonds (excluding ABS) maturing/ puttable until end-’22 and end-’23, respectively.

BofA have an Overweight recommendation on SINHLD 9.5 '21/ 8.5 '22/ 10.5 '22 on favorable risk-reward driven by (1) good and sufficient land bank and (2) attractive yield pickup over similarly maturing Chinese HY property bonds.

美銀證券：基於有利的風險回報建議增持新力全部三隻美元債券

美林證券於8月31日更新了對新力控股的研究報吿。有關詳細信息，請參閲以下摘要：

改善債務/上限、淨負債率和淨槓桿率

與2020年底相比，SINHLD的現金總額增加10%至人民幣193億元，而債務總額則基本保持不變，為人民幣296億元。淨負債環比下降16%至102億元人民幣，而總權益環比增長6%至202億元人民幣。債務/資本環比提高2個百分點至59%，淨債務/權益環比提高13個百分點至51%。債務/過去12個月EBITDA環比增長0.4倍至5.9倍，而淨債務/過去12個月EBITDA環比提高0.2倍至2.0倍。總現金/短債環比提高0.2倍至1.4倍。

在岸和離岸債券市場的再融資需求

自1H21結束以來，SINHLD的境內債券淨髮行量(不包括ABS)已達到5億元人民幣，而其境外債券淨贖回總額為500萬美元。至於其2021年剩餘時間的再融資需求，它沒有在岸市場(不包括ABS)到期/可回售的債券，而在離岸市場有2.46億美元的債券到期。美林證券估計其1H21預估總現金將分別覆蓋其到期/可回售債券(不包括ABS)的4.3倍和3.6倍，直至22年底和23年底。

美林證券對SINHL全部三隻美元債券評級為“買入”，原因是(1)良好且充足的土地儲備和(2)相對於類似到期的中國高收益房地產債券具有吸引力的收益率回升。